xG (expected goals)

xG stands for Expected Goals. It’s a stat that tries to measure how good a chance really was—not just whether the shot went in.

Every shot in football gets an xG value between 0 and 1, based on thousands of past shots from similar situations.

• 0.1 xG (10%) = a tough chance, maybe a shot from far outside the box.

• 0.5 xG (50%) = a solid chance, like a striker one-on-one with the keeper.

• 0.9 xG (90%) = a sitter, basically an open goal from close range.

Add them all up, and you get a team’s total xG for a match. It tells you how many goals they were expected to score from the chances they created.

Why It Matters

• Beyond the scoreline: A team might lose 1–0 but have an xG of 2.5 compared to the opponent’s 0.5. That shows they created better chances but didn’t finish them.

• Spotting luck vs. skill: If a striker keeps scoring from very low xG shots (like long-range rockets), you might say they’re on a hot streak—because statistically, those don’t usually go in.

• Tactics insight: Managers and analysts use xG to measure whether a game plan is actually working, regardless of the final score.